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Redding [2001]
Another American opinion poll that leaves many
questions unanswered. On this occasion the
pro-fluoride lobby's contact was Donnell Ewert, a
Public Health Program Manager. The poll was managed
by Jon S. Ebeling, Ph.D. Please note the use of the
term "This is a scientifically conducted study of
511 respondents inside the City of Redding." Never
has the term "scientifically conducted study" been
used in such a deceptive and misleading way ...
Poll finds mixed support for fluoride
Scott Mobley, Record Searchlight, Wednesday,
November 7, 2001.
www.redding.com/top_stories/local/
20011106toplo004.shtml
NB. Reporter Scott Mobley can be reached at 225-8220
or at smobley@redding.com
From: Chris
To: dewert@co.shasta.ca.us
Sent: Thursday,
November 08, 2001 6:52 PM [NB -8 hours]
Subject: opinion poll
To: Donnell Ewert, Public Health Program Manager
I have been informed by Pam English that I can
request the full details of the below mentioned
opinion poll which should be available in about 2-3
weeks time. I look forward to receiving details.
Regards, Chris Holdcroft
ORIGINAL MESSAGE:
8th November 2001
Mr. Holdcroft,
The telephone opinion poll regarding water
fluoridation was conducted between October 27-31,
2001. The questions and survey will be available
within 2-3 weeks. If you would like a copy of this
information at that time, please e-mail your request
to Donnell Ewert, Public Health Program Manager, at
dewert@co.shasta.ca.us.
Pam English, Executive Assistant. (530) 225-5594
From: Chris
To: <dewert@co.shasta.ca.us>
Sent: 11/29/01 07:12AM
Dear Donald Ewert
I have so far received no response from you
concerning the below mentioned opinion poll. The
full details of the opinion poll should now be
available and I would appreciate a copy to be sent
at your earliest convenience.
NB. Please note that I am using an alternative
e-mail address (my 'Supanet' mail is not always
obtainable).
Many thanks, Chris Holdcroft
From: "Ewert Donnell"
<dewert@co.shasta.ca.us>
To: Chris
Sent: Monday, December
03, 2001 6:30 PM [NB -8 hours]
Subject: Re: Fw:
opinion poll
Thank you for your
inquiry about the public opinion poll conducted by
Jon Ebeling, PhD, regarding water fluoridation in
Redding. I have attached his report, which I hope
you find useful.
[NB. see bottom of
page]
From: Chris
To: <dewert@co.shasta.ca.us>
Sent: 12/03/01 11:24AM
Dear Ewert Donnell
Thank you for your
quick reply and attachment. However, what I was
actually looking for was a copy of the full opinion
poll set of questions - preferably a copy of the
actual paper used. The report you sent to me gives
me no idea whatsoever how many questions were asked,
the text of these questions, and in which order they
were presented to the respondent.
I would be very
grateful if you could help me further and provide
the information that I desire.
Best wishes, Chris
Holdcroft
From: "Ewert Donnell"
<dewert@co.shasta.ca.us>
To: Chris
Sent: Tuesday,
December 04, 2001 12:04 AM [NB -8 hours]
Subject: Re: Fw:
opinion poll
Thank you for your
interest in oral health and water fluoridation. I
have provided you with the information that has been
made available to the public and the media. The text
of the question asked respondants [sic] is clearly
stated in that report. Thank you for your inquiry
and best wishes.
From: Chris
To: <dewert@co.shasta.ca.us>
Date: Tuesday,
December 04, 2001 11:40 AM
Dear Ewert Donnell
I am disappointed
to learn that you are not prepared to be more
forthcoming with information of the disputed opinion
poll. While you are quite within your rights to
conceal information which would be more instructive,
you have chosen to release only that information
which suits your particular argument - thus
indicating a clear bias.
Therefore, based on
the secrecy you wish to maintain, I can only assume
that opinion poll was potentially biased (in favour
of a 'yes' vote for water fluoridation) and you do
not wish this to be made public.
Comments on the
opinion poll will appear on my website: http://www.fluoride.org.uk.
It is at this location you can find more information
on other opinion polls, amongst a myriad of other
information.
Yours sincerely,
Chris Holdcroft
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REGIONAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES
Applied Policy
Studies for the Public and Private Sectors |
The 'released
version'
“It is easy to lie
with statistics, but it is easier to lie without
them.” Frederick Mosteller
SUMMARY OF INITIAL
FINDINGS REGARDING THE SURVEY OF RESIDENTS IN
REDDING ABOUT FLUORIDE IN THE WATER
By Jon S. Ebeling,
Ph.D. 11/6/2001
-
This is a
scientifically conducted study of 511 respondents
inside the City of Redding.
-
The
questionnaire was pre tested on 45 respondents.
-
The interviewers
were briefed for four hours prior to interviewing.
-
The interviewers
were closely monitored for correct behavior during
interviewing.
-
The survey
director, Dr. Jon Ebeling, completed ten
interviews himself to monitor the questionnaire’s
characteristics with actual respondents.
-
All the data was
collected through the use of computer software and
logic programmed for eight computers by this
author.
-
Random Digit
Dialing was used to ensure that all phone numbers
have almost the same chance of being in an
interview. This procedure ensures that people who
have unlisted numbers have the same chance of
being interviewed as those without unlisted
numbers.
-
All the data for
the final report will be analyzed using
state-of-the-art statistical analysis. This may
entail the use of three way cross-tabulated
analyses, analysis of variance and regression
techniques.
-
The final report
will be prepared using a complete analysis of
relationships in the data, and interpretation of
those relationships. In this manner, we will find
important information about the attitudes and
opinions of residents using responses to multiple
questions and background characteristics.
THE INITIAL
FINDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR THE
CITY TO INSTALL FLUORIDATED WATER SYSTEMS FOR THE
RESIDENTS
There is a majority of
respondents who support the idea of fluoridated
water. The reader should notice the column headed “cum.”
in Table 1. This cumulative column indicates that
the sum of those that said they strongly support or
support the idea is 66% of those who held an opinion
on the matter. Slightly more than 5% of the sample
of respondents refused to answer or did not know
about the topic. Those who responded as refused or
who said they did not know were asked the question a
second time before the coding of missing responses
was entered. Slightly more than 12% of the
respondents were undecided about the matter. The sum
of those that opposed or strongly opposed is 22 % of
the sample. Thus one might conclude that the ratio
of support to opposition on this matter is 3 to 1.
Table 1 illustrates these results.
TABLE 1
SUPPORT OR OPPOSITION TO FLUORIDATION
OF THE WATER IN THE CITY OF REDDING
Support or
Oppose fluoridation
|
|
Freq |
Percent |
Cum. |
|
strongly support |
118 |
24.43 |
24.43 |
|
support |
200 |
41.41 |
65.84 |
|
undecided |
58 |
12.01 |
77.85 |
|
oppose |
90 |
18.63 |
96.48 |
|
strongly oppose |
17 |
3.52 |
100.00 |
|
Total |
483 |
100.00 |
|
THERE IS BROAD SUPPORT FOR WATER FLUORIDATION AMONG
BOTH GENDER
GROUPS
AND ALL AGE
BRACKETS
The pattern of
support or opposition across gender and over age
brackets indicates that more than 60% of both
genders and all age groups support or strongly
support water fluoridation. Almost 69% of the
female respondents support the idea and 62% of the
males in the sample support the idea. It is
important to note further that females feel more
strongly on this matter by a factor of almost 1.5 to
1 than males. It may be that women are more
concerned with preventive
health issues in this matter than are men.
Twelve percent of the sample was undecided on the
issue.
While more than
60% of respondents in each age group support water
fluoridation, there is a very slight pattern of
increasing opposition as the respondent gets older.
Those within the age bracket of 18-29 are the are
the most supportive (72%) and those who are in the
age bracket 67 years or older are the most
infrequent supporters (61%).
THERE IS INITIAL
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST A MAJORITY OF THOSE RESPONDING
WILL PAY A HIGHER PRICE FOR WATER FLUORIDATION
Of all
respondents, 56% indicated a willingness to pay some
increase in price for the service of fluoridated
water. Of these folks who are willing to pay higher
water rates, 87% were willing to pay at least a
$1.50 per month.
When estimating
through surveys the willingness of people to pay for
price changes tends to produce an under estimate of
what they would actually pay. Scientific studies and
economic theory have demonstrated that respondents
place a higher value on a public good than they are
willing to reveal to an interviewer. Thus, it is
probable that an even larger majority is willing to
pay $1.50 per month.
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